Data from: Investigating behavioral drivers of seasonal Shiga-Toxigenic Escherichia Coli (STEC) patterns in grazing cattle using an agent-based model

The causes of seasonal variability in pathogen transmission are not well understood, and have not been comprehensively investigated. In an example for enteric pathogens, incidence of Escherichia coli O157 (STEC) colonization in cattle is consistently higher during warmer months compared to cooler months in various cattle production systems. However, actual mechanisms for this seasonality remain elusive. In addition, the influence of host (cattle) behavior on this pattern has not been thoroughly considered. To that end, we constructed a spatially explicit agent-based model that accounted for the effect of temperature fluctuations on cattle behavior (direct contact among cattle and indirect between cattle and environment), as well as its effect on pathogen survival in the environment. We then simulated the model in a factorial approach to evaluate the hypothesis that temperature fluctuations can lead to seasonal STEC transmission dynamics by influencing cattle aggregation, grazing, and drinking behaviors. Simulation results showed that higher temperatures increased the frequency at which cattle aggregated under shade in pasture, resulting in increased direct contact and transmission of STEC between individual cattle, and hence higher incidence over model simulations in the warm season. In contrast, increased drinking behavior during warm season was not an important transmission pathway. Although sensitivity analyses suggested that the relative importance of direct vs. indirect (environmental) pathways depend to upon model parameterization, model simulations indicated that factors influencing cattle aggregation, such as temperature, were likely strong drivers of transmission dynamics of enteric pathogens.Dawson_et_al.2008_Factorial_Simulations_Updated_92018Results of factorial simulations from simulation experiment detailed in Dawson et al. (2018) Investigating behavioral drivers of seasonal Shiga-toxigenic Escherichia coli (STEC) patterns in grazing cattle using an agent-based model.Dawson_et_al.2008_Factorial_Simulations_3GrazeRest_2Drink_Spring_Summer_Fall_2002_2011.csvSimulation results: secondary latin-hypercube sampling sensitivity AnalyisSimulations produced during a secondary sensitivity analysis of environmental structure and number of cattle.Dawson_et_al.2008_LHS_Env_Structure.csvCalibration simulations: Increasing grass infection at 20CSimulations run as part of model calibration. Sequentially increasing values of grass infection parameter were used at 20C.Dawson_et_al.2008_Simulations_Calibration_20C_Increasing_GrassInfection.csvCalibration simulations: Increasing distance threshold at 30CSimulations in which the value of the distance threshold for direct transmission was systematically increased at 30C using the calibrated value of grass infection factor determined at 20C.Dawson_et_al.2008_Simulations_Calibration_30C_increasing_ddt.csvCalibration simulations: verification of calibration rangeSimulations at both 20C and 30C validating simulations in mean calibration range for winter and summer STEC prevalence as ID'd by Ekong et al. 2015.Dawson_et_al.2008_Simulations_Calibration_Verifying_20C&30C_0.025_GrassInfection&0.45ddt.csvLHS SimulationsSimulations conducted at 20,24,25, and 30C using Latin-Hypercube Sample values of 7 parameters. This was used as the basis for the calibration procedure.Dawson_et_al.2008_Simulations_LHS_sensitivity_analysis_to_produce_calibrated_model.csvSimulations: Local sensitivity analysisSimulations conducted at 20,24, 25, and 30C of 18 parameters for the Local Sensitivity Analysis procedure.Dawson_et_al.2008_Simulations_Local_Sensitivity_Analysis.csvFunding provided by: National Science FoundationCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001Award Number: EF-083285