Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (as a novelty pursued by a few ‘quants’) toward the mainstream of the discipline. Amongst the most high profile of election forecasting techniques are prediction markets and vote-intention polls. While the weight of scholarly opinion appears to favour prediction markets over polls for election forecasting, there remain challengers and critics. This article joins with the challengers and the critics, looking at whether this ‘horse race’ competition between election forecasting approaches is valid. Using data from the 2013 Australian federal election, we conclude such comparisons-of-forecasts are misplaced in the Australian context, as prediction...
As this forum demonstrates, the competition between election forecasting models along the US model b...
The forecasting of election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: the outco...
Mass election predictions are increasingly used by election forecasters and public opinion scholars....
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (a...
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (a...
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project...
The dominant methodology for short-term forecasting of electoral outcomes uses trial-heat polls, whe...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
In this paper, we seek to examine how well prediction markets performed, compared to opinion polls, ...
What is the best way to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three for...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling ...
1 In recent years, prediction markets have drawn considerable attention as a tool for forecasting fu...
This is the first of two special issues devoted to current topics and innovative approaches in the f...
As this forum demonstrates, the competition between election forecasting models along the US model b...
The forecasting of election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: the outco...
Mass election predictions are increasingly used by election forecasters and public opinion scholars....
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (a...
Election forecasting is an expanding domain within political science, moving from the outer edges (a...
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project...
The dominant methodology for short-term forecasting of electoral outcomes uses trial-heat polls, whe...
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to...
In this paper, we seek to examine how well prediction markets performed, compared to opinion polls, ...
What is the best way to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three for...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
Which technique is more accurate in predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, polls or ...
In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling ...
1 In recent years, prediction markets have drawn considerable attention as a tool for forecasting fu...
This is the first of two special issues devoted to current topics and innovative approaches in the f...
As this forum demonstrates, the competition between election forecasting models along the US model b...
The forecasting of election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: the outco...
Mass election predictions are increasingly used by election forecasters and public opinion scholars....