High temperatures and human pressures interact to influence mortality in an African carnivore

1. The impacts of high ambient temperatures on mortality in humans and domestic animals are well understood. However much less is known about how hot weather affects mortality in wild animals. High ambient temperatures have been associated with African wild dog Lycaon pictus pup mortality, suggesting that high temperatures might also be linked to high adult mortality. 2. We analysed mortality patterns in African wild dogs radio-collared in Kenya (0°N), Botswana (20°S) and Zimbabwe (20°S), to examine whether ambient temperature was associated with adult mortality. 3. We found that high ambient temperatures were associated with increased adult wild dog mortality at the Kenya site, and there was some evidence for temperature associations with mortality at the Botswana and Zimbabwe sites. 4. At the Kenya study site, which had the highest human impact, high ambient temperatures were associated with increased risks of wild dogs being killed by people, and by domestic dog diseases. In contrast, temperature was not associated with the risk of snare-related mortality at the Zimbabwe site, which had the second-highest human impact. Causes of death varied markedly between sites. 5. Pack size was positively associated with survival at all three sites. 6. These findings suggest that while climate change may not lead to new causes of mortality, rising temperatures may exacerbate existing anthropogenic threats to this endangered species, with implications for conservation. This evidence suggests that temperature-related mortality, including interactions between temperature and other anthropogenic threats, should be investigated in a greater number of species to understand and mitigate likely impacts of climate change.Details of the column names can be found in the ReadMe file. There are three csvs, one for each study site. Missing values are indicated by an NA. In particular at the Kenya site there is a period in 2011 where the weather station was broken and therefore there is a period of missing data. There are also a number of time periods where variables such as age or dispersal status are unknown for particular dogs. Funding provided by: Natural Environment Research CouncilCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270Award Number: NE/L002485/1Study sites We analysed adult African wild dog mortality at three sites: the Ewaso ecosystem, Kenya; the Okavango Delta, Botswana; and Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe. All three study sites fall within semi-arid savanna ecosystems. Field Data Collection At the Kenya study site 130 African wild dogs (56 female, 74 male) from 41 packs were monitored using either Vectronics GPS collars (GPS Plus, Vectronic Aerospace GmbH), Televilt GPS collars (GPS-Posrec, Televilt, Lindesberg, Sweden), Berlin, Germany), or VHF radio-collars (Telonics, Mesa AZ, USA). All three collar types included a mortality sensor programmed to emit a characteristic radio signal if stationary for ≥4h. At the Zimbabwe study site, 59 African wild dogs (22 female, 37 male) from 34 packs were monitored using either radio collars or GPS collars (African Wildlife Tracking, Rietondale, Pretoria, South Africa). Using radio-collars (Sirtrack, Havelock West, New Zealand) 31 African wild dogs (10 female, 21 male) from 16 packs were monitored at the Botswana site. Collars were fitted using the procedures outlined in McNutt (1996), Woodroffe (2011) and Jackson et al. (2017). At all three sites, packs were located every 1-2 weeks where possible. Any collared animal found dead was carefully examined with the aim of establishing a cause of death. At the Kenya site necropsies were carried out on all dead individuals located. At the Botswana site cause of death was only recorded in cases where the death was directly observed, or during disease outbreaks, and therefore the majority of causes of death were unconfirmed. Most deaths at the Botswana site are likely to be due to natural causes given the low human activity in this area. For all three sites, the date of first detection of a mortality signal from the collar was used to estimate the date of death when not observed directly, and where this was not possible an estimated date of mortality was made based on the date midway between the last sighting, or the last detection of the radio-collar without a mortality signal, and the discovery of the carcass or collar. If any study animal was not observed in its resident pack for over 30 days, no mortality signal was detected, and no carcass was found, it was considered lost from the study and censored from the day of the last observation (Kenya: n=51, Zimbabwe: n=34, Botswana: n=8). If a carcass or collar was discovered more than 30 days after the last sighting (n=2), the animal was considered lost from the study due to the inaccuracy of the date of death and was censored from the date of the last sighting. Group and individual characteristics were recorded at each site. At all three sites dispersal status of the individual was recorded. Individuals were defined as dispersing if they left their pack for multiple days and did not return, otherwise they were defined as resident (Woodroffe et al. 2019b). Group size – either the pack size for resident individuals or the dispersal group size for dispersing individuals – was recorded for each individual, and was defined as the number of adults (>12 months in age) in the group. African wild dog pup-rearing involves the pups being left at a den site for the first three months of life while the majority of the rest of the pack hunt daily, bringing food back to provision the pups. This pup rearing period is referred to as denning. For each pack, denning periods were identified using either direct observations or GPS-collar data. At the Kenya site a number of other individual and pack characteristics were also monitored. Individuals' alpha status was inferred based on consistent close association with a specific individual of the opposite sex, coordinated scent marking, and reproductive activity; all animals not identified as alpha were considered subdominant. African wild dog age was known for many individuals, otherwise it was estimated from tooth wear when the individual was collared (Woodroffe et al. 2019b). Age range at collaring ranged from 1 to 7 years old (mean: 2.43 ±1.27). The age of the majority of individuals at the Zimbabwe and Botswana sites was not known. Weather data is from weather stations within the field site at Mpala research station at the Kenya site (detailed in Caylor K., Gitonga, J. and Martins 2016), 30km outside the study site at Maun airport for the Botswana site and the Middle Sabi Research Station, 12km from the study area boundary at the Zimbabwe research site. Data Processing The average mean temperature was taken on a 90 day rolling average at the Kenya and Zimbabwe sites, and a 30 day rolling average at the Botswana site. Rainfall was summed over a 30 day rolling time period at the Kenya and Botswana sites and a 90 day rolling period at the Zimbabwe site