Economic implications of classical swine fever in Finland

The goal of this study was to estimate how large classical swine fever losses could be if the disease were introduced into, and detected in Finland. Furthermore, the goal was to study which factors would cause large losses. As no actual outbreak data were available, the spread of the virus between herds and the eradication of the disease were simulated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Direct eradication costs were computed. Indirect losses caused by an outbreak and demand shock were estimated with a partial-equilibrium model. The data included detailed information on factors such as the movement of animals and the structure of pig markets in Finland. The results suggest that even if the number of infected farms were likely to be small, the losses could be large if demand for pig meat were to be distorted. Market reactions can have a large impact on losses. estimated losses, however, suggest that incentives to prevent the spread of the virus during an outbreak with voluntary measures such as pre-emptive slaughter are low.FI; fi; efsafocalpoint@evira.f