MODELING CYBER-THREATS: ADOPTING BAYES' PRINCIPLES IN THE ATTACK GRAPHS THEORY

This MSc thesis will analyze how the Bayesian Theory can be applied to the Intrusion Prevention and Response Strategy research area. I am going to present a brief summary on the graphical security modelling technique, with the objective of describing a common point between the existing formalism and aiming to implement a Security Model Simulator that allows the expert to both run and compare different solutions and approaches to the same problem (or architecture). The focus of this work is on the simulator, presented in chapter 3, in particular on the technical details of the implementation and on the innate difficulties related to the lack of standard basic structure