Modeling and Forecasting for Agricultural Production – Food grains in India

Abstract— Food grains are cultivated in different proportions in different parts of India depending upon its intensity and cropping pattern. It is also useful to know the area, production and yield rates of food grains grown across the country over the years and to predict the future performance of these food grains by providing suitable forecasting methods. The data regarding production of food grains for the period from 1950 to 2021 is to be analyzed by applying forecasting method. Applying the worldwide accepted Box-Jenkins method would be a suitable tool for forecasting the performance of food grains in India. The study will prompt the government to take appropriate and necessary policy measures to sustain and arrest the fluctuating performance of food grains in India and take necessary steps to enhance its overall performance