Development of a Disease Prediction Model for Brown Spot Disease severity of Rice based on Weather Variable Parameters

Abstract— The correlation studies of brown spot disease incidence of rice with weather factors found that during the first year of studies (2014-15) the disease incidence was significant and negatively correlated with temperature (Tmax.=-.98), (Tmin.=-.93) and wind speed (WS=-.71) whereas others weather factors RHmax, RHmin., Rainfall (RF) were non significant and positively correlated with brown spot disease severity. Therefore, Tmax., Tmin. and Wind speeds are the key weather factors that influenced the brown spot disease severity of Rice. The multiple analysis stepwise equation showed that maximum temperature was found to be an important key factor for brown spot developments during (2014-15) which is supported by highly significant coefficient value of determination also maximum temperature (Tmax.) was found important predictor in case of Propiconazole application and it could be able to explain variation by more than 95% for the Kharif season (2014-15). The value R2 = 0.96 which indicate that the model is fitted well and is good for predicting brown spot incidence providing 95.6% prediction