Modelling the Impacts of Accelerated Urbanization and Clean Energy Access on Energy Demand in Taita Taveta County, Kenya

The study considers a base scenario based on historical data trends, as well as two alternative scenarios. The first scenario explores accelerated urbanization, aiming for a 50% urban population by 2050, while the second scenario focuses on achieving universal access to clean energy (specifically cooking) by 2030.The findings reveal that accelerated urbanization is projected to lead to a 10% increase in energy demand by 2040. Conversely, achieving universal clean energy access shows a significant 13% decrease in energy demand during the same period. This highlights the higher efficiency and potential cost-effectiveness of clean energy solutions. Based on the study's results, the implementation of fiscal incentives to promote the adoption of modern clean energy technologies is recommended. Additionally, a realistic implementation framework aligned with government targets, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Vision 2030, is crucial. By considering the insights from this study, policymakers and stakeholders can develop data-driven strategies to address the energy challenges posed by accelerated urbanization. Promoting clean energy adoption and investing in sustainable energy solutions will be key to meeting the region's energy demands efficiently and in line with national development objectives