Analysis of the results of a retrospective cohort study of the course of pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period in high-risk patients to identify factors of unfavorable outcomes and build a predictive model of fetal loss

Prenatal prognosis is an important part of obstetric care, which aims to reduce fetal and neonatal losses. A differentiated approach to the management of different risk groups allows you to optimize existing approaches. The objective: to identify antenatal factors that correlate with perinatal losses, by conducting a retrospective cohort study of women at high perinatal risk, to build a multifactorial prognostic model of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Materials and methods. A retrospective cohort study was conducted from 2014 to 2016 on the basis of the medical center LLC «Uniclinic», Medical Genetics Center «Genome», Clinic of Reproductive Genetics «Victoria», Kyiv City Maternity Hospital №2. 2154 medical cards of pregnant women from the group of high perinatal risk were selected and analyzed. Of these, 782 pregnant women were included in the final protocol after verification of compliance with the criteria. Results. Cesarean delivery occurred in 115 cases (14.7%). In 50 cases (6.4%) the caesarean section was performed in a planned manner, in 65 (8.3%) – in an emergency. In 39 (5%) cases, the indication for surgical delivery was acute fetal distress. Antenatal fetal death occurred in 11 (1.4%) cases: one case in terms of 37 weeks. Intranatal death of two fetuses (0.3%) was due to acute asphyxia on the background of placental insufficiency. In the early neonatal period, 14 (1.8%) newborns died. Hospitalization of the newborn to the intensive care unit for the first 7 days was registered in 64 (8.2%) cases. The need for mechanical ventilation was stated in 3.96% (31/782) of newborns. The method of construction and analysis of multifactor models of logistic regression was used in the analysis of the relationship between the risk of perinatal losses (antenatal death, intranatal death, early neonatal death) and factor characteristics. Conclusion. Signs associated with the risk of perinatal loss: the presence of chronic hypertension, preeclampsia in previous pregnancies, type of fertilization (natural or artificial), the concentration of PAPP-A (MoM), the concentration of free β-HCG (MoM) in the second trimester, average PI in the uterine arteries in 28–30 weeks of pregnancy, PI in the middle cerebral arteries in 28–30 weeks of pregnancy, episodes of low fetal heart rate variability in the third trimester of pregnancy, episodes of high fetal heart rate variability in the third trimester of pregnancy. The model, built on selected features, allows with a sensitivity of 73.1% (95% CI: 52.2% – 88.4%) and a specificity of 72.7% (95% CI: 69.3% – 75.9%) to predict risk perinatal loss