Climate change is predicted to reduce sympatry among North American wood-warblers

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change will dramatically alter species distributions. The rate and magnitude of range shifts, however, will differ among taxa, resulting in altered patterns of co-occurrence and interspecific interactions. We examined potential climate-mediated breeding range shifts among North American wood-warblers (Parulidae), a speciose avian family likely to be especially impacted by such changes due to high levels of interspecific competition and hybridization. We used publicly available species distribution model (SDM) range outputs to compare current ranges and patterns of sympatry among warbler species to future ranges and sympatry under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C of average global warming. Range overlap among species and number of sympatric species are expected to decrease significantly in future warming scenarios, and unequal range shifts will alter the composition of warbler communities. On average, climate change will result in net decreases in the local species diversity; each warbler species is predicted to gain sympatry with approximately 1 new species and lose sympatry with approximately 2 species. Climate-mediated changes are predicted to differ among warblers in different regions of North America, with greatest impacts on eastern and boreal forest species. Our findings suggest that climate change will alter the diversity of wood-warbler communities during this century. Targeted monitoring of these changing interspecific relationships, especially for antagonistic interactions or hybridization between newly sympatric species, will be crucial for prioritizing particular species and regions in future conservation or management efforts.Any software to open and manipulate spreadsheets - file extension .csv - (e.g., R, Python, Excel), as well as spatial data - file extension .shp - (e.g., R, ArcGIS) are required to open data files included here. A Python compiler (e.g., ArcGIS [what we used], Jupyter) is required to open .ipynb files and R/RStudio is required to open .Rmd files.Funding provided by: National Science FoundationCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001Award Number: AGS-1659338Funding provided by: University of MichiganCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007270Award Number: Funding provided by: U.S. Department of DefenseCrossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000005Award Number: AGS-1659338We used publicly available species distribution model (SDM) range outputs to compare current ranges and patterns of sympatry among warbler species to future ranges and sympatry under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C of average global warming. We used these outputs to calculate average breeding range area, range overlap among species, number of sympatric species, and distances of breeding range shifts. We additionally calculated the number gained and lost sympatric interactions under each warming scenario