A New Dimension of the Motherhood Penalty: Perceptions of Future Childbearing Risk

It is increasingly common in the United States for women who have children to do so while being employed. In a context of demanding jobs and family responsibilities together with increasing state-level paid family leave policies, the expectation that women are at risk of having a child and needing time away from work can be a source of uncertainty for employers. This dissertation is guided by the overarching question: What are employers’ perceptions of women who are likely to have a child soon? By conducting three experimental studies and one interview study, I propose that future childbearing risk (FCR)—assumptions about women’s future childbearing risk—operates as a unique dimension of the motherhood penalty. These studies combined show that individuals use sociodemographic characteristics to categorize high-FCR women, and that high FCR status is associated with stereotypes about increased risk and cost, relative to low-FCR women. To examine whether the stereotypes associated with FCR result in real-world hiring outcomes, I conduct a correspondence audit study that shows penalties to high-FCR women relative to low-FCR men and women in states that offer 12 weeks of paid mandatory leave. Finally, the qualitative analysis shows that managers hold strong norms associated with leave-taking, illustrating their anticipations and concerns with employees whom they perceive as high risk of future childbearing. Across these studies, I contrast future childbearing risk with current motherhood status, showing how FCR is an important dimension of motherhood that expands and adds nuance to our theoretical and empirical understanding of both gender and parental status inequality in the labor market.Doctor of Philosoph