Meinungsumfragen als informationstragende Institutionen | Eine ökonometrische Untersuchung der Erwartungs- und Entscheidungsbildung an politischen Börsen

Three political stock markets, installed in Germany, are investigated. Tests on Granger causality show that opinion polls played a more important role in German than in American political stock markets. There are good reasons that traders used carefully external information in the sense of transaction costs economics. Traders did not trust in all polls. They also did not use polls to determine prices for all party stocks. However, it can not be concluded that the traders in the German markets did not rely on external institutional help in particular opinion polls