Machine learning profiles of cardiovascular risk in patients with diabetes mellitus: the Silesia Diabetes-Heart Project

Abstract Aims As cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death for patients with diabetes mellitus (DM), we aimed to find important factors that predict cardiovascular (CV) risk using a machine learning (ML) approach. Methods and results We performed a single center, observational study in a cohort of 238 DM patients (mean age ± SD 52.15 ± 17.27 years, 54% female) as a part of the Silesia Diabetes-Heart Project. Having gathered patients’ medical history, demographic data, laboratory test results, results from the Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument (assessing diabetic peripheral neuropathy) and Ewing’s battery examination (determining the presence of cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy), we managed use a ML approach to predict the occurrence of overt CVD on the basis of five most discriminative predictors with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.91). Those features included the presence of past or current foot ulceration, age, the treatment with beta-blocker (BB) and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi). On the basis of the aforementioned parameters, unsupervised clustering identified different CV risk groups. The highest CV risk was determined for the eldest patients treated in large extent with ACEi but not BB and having current foot ulceration, and for slightly younger individuals treated extensively with both above-mentioned drugs, with relatively small percentage of diabetic ulceration. Conclusions Using a ML approach in a prospective cohort of patients with DM, we identified important factors that predicted CV risk. If a patient was treated with ACEi or BB, is older and has/had a foot ulcer, this strongly predicts that he/she is at high risk of having overt CVD