Securing the future : the use of strategic foresight in the security sector

The pace of change has accelerated in all areas of society. Increasing geopolitical tensions, deeper socio-economic divides, rapid technological changes, and the threat of environmental disasters have created the perception that political and economic realities are shifting and society must be reshaped. Organisations of all kinds must respond to these changes and the resulting uncertainties to successfully navigate into the future. Security organisations – defence ministries, intelligence agencies, police forces or armed forces – are no exception. Like others, they need to improve their capacities to look ahead and think beyond. The latter is the ability to think beyond system boundaries and to integrate more perspectives into their strategic risk assessments than they were used to in the past. Security organisations must therefore broaden their scope in terms of relevant policy areas far beyond the focus on traditional security issues. On the other hand, to look ahead is the ability to think further into the future than previously seemed necessary. Security organisations must therefore extend the time horizon of their strategic outlook to five, ten or even thirty years to capture all the developments that are potentially relevant to the fulfilment of their mission. This analysis places strategic foresight at the heart of organisational or management perspectives that help security organisations to meet the challenges they face. By sharpening their strategic foresight, security organisations and professionals can identify significant developments early on and create resilient pictures of possible future environments. This enables them to anticipate threats and opportunities, think and act in terms of alternatives, and optimise their strategic direction and operational management