Crop response to P fertilizer omission under a changing climate-Experimental and modeling results over 115 years of a long-term fertilizer experiment

Phosphorus (P) is an essential plant nutrient. However, our understanding of the complex interactions between soil P availability, environment, management and crop growth is still limited. We used unique historic and recent soil and crop data spanning more than a century combined with a process-based crop model to analyze the impact of P fertilizer omission and P fertilization on the biomass production of five crops. The long-term field experiment at Dikopshof, Germany, was established in 1904 with a 5-year crop rotation of sugar beet, winter wheat, winter rye, clover and oat/potato (potato replaced oat in 1953) on a fertile Luvisol. Averaged over the period from 1906 to 2018, the yield loss due to P omission was low for winter wheat and winter rye (7-8 %). In contrast, yield losses for sugar beet, clover and potato were relatively high (15-24 %). The yield loss from P fertilizer omission in comparison to the reference treatment (rotation mean excluding oat/potato) increased until the middle of the last century from 7% to 18 %, but subsequently decreased to 13 %. Trend and correlation analyses suggest that this decrease was related to an increase in air temperatures in especial during spring and a lower yield loss under P omission. Crop model simulations showed decreasing topsoil organic carbon concentrations after the 1930ies as manure was discontinued in 1942 but also due to increasing air temperatures. The increase in plant-available topsoil P concentrations during the last decades was one of the main factors offsetting yield losses despite P fertilizer omission. Our study suggests that climate change and, in particular, a marked increase in temperature since the middle of the last century most likely influenced soil P dynamics with a significant impact on crop production.Peer reviewe