Association rules and prediction of transportation mode choice:Application to national travel survey data

Predicting transportation mode choice is a classic challenge of travel behavior research. Over the years, different theoretical concepts and modeling approaches have been applied. This paper elaborates the application of class association rules (CARs) and examines their predictive performance using data extracted from the 2015 National Dutch Travel Survey. To solve the problem how to activate rules that have high confidence but low support, the information gain (IG) concept is introduced in the model building process. The modeling process in this study first involves extracting frequent items from the data using the FP-Growth algorithm and deriving CARs from these frequent items. Next, the IG statistic is used to construct a novel model (named CARIG), which consists of a set of decision rules that formally represent behavioral scripts, for predicting individuals’ transportation mode choice. The performance of CARIG is compared with the performance of conventional class-based association rules (CBA), decision trees (DT), a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a logistic regression (LR) model. In addition, a 10-fold cross validation test using a grid search parameter optimization method is conducted to validate the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed method is promising in predicting transportation mode choices observed in the national travel survey data.