Dietary change and land use change: assessing preventable climate and biodiversity damage due to meat consumption in Germany

Land use change (LUC) is responsible for a large share of the emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) and is a major driver of global biodiversity loss. Although much of the global LUC-related CO2 emissions and biodiversity loss occur in tropical countries, the actual drivers of this LUC can be located in the global North, particularly through the import of large quantities of agricultural commodities. The aim of this study is to quantify and monetize the LUC-related impacts of the consumption of animal-based food products in Germany and subsequently explore the potential benefits of transitioning to diets with lower dependence on animal-based products. We calculate the LUC-related impacts of consumption of animal-based products in Germany through a modeling approach that combines models for land balance, emissions, and physical trade. We determine the LUC-related CO2 emissions of this consumption, as well as the deforested area and associated impacts on biodiversity loss. Following the true cost accounting approach (TCA), the LUC-related impacts are monetized to estimate the external costs of the German consumption of animal-based products. Our results show that the consumption of these products is responsible for the deforestation of 16.4 kha annually in the period between 2013 and 2016. Out of the six analyzed animal-based product groups, the largest shares of deforestation are associated with milk (35%) and pork (33%) consumption. However, beef meat consumption has the highest relative LUC-related CO2 emissions at 0.75 tCO2 per ton. The LUC-related externalities of the German meat-based product consumption incur annually societal costs of EUR 1.1 billion (plus EUR 0.5 billion for biodiversity loss). The results also show that the animal-based products imported in Germany have only slightly higher LUC-related CO2 emissions than those produced within Germany. Overall, there is a great urgency for policy measures and shifts in consumer behavior to ensure that the consumption of animal-based products in Germany does not have unacceptably high negative sustainability impacts