Predictors of Church Growth in the Diocese of Southwark, 2000–2008

During the first decade of this century, the Diocese of Southwark saw a slight increase in ‘usual Sunday attendance’. This chapter examines the change in usual Sunday attendance of 332 churches that took part in the Signs of Growth survey to see if the average change from one year to the next from 2000 to 2008 could be explained by the profile of congregations and/or the sort of neighbourhood in which they were located. Across the Diocese, most congregations grew, though the rate was modest and amounted to less than 0.2% per year on average. Ethnic profiles and diversity varied considerably between the inner city and the outlying rural areas, but there was no evidence that average growth was greater in some deaneries than others. Percentage growth was associated neither with congregation size nor with the extent of eclecticism; average growth was higher in congregations with a higher proportion of younger adults. Churches in areas with higher proportions of black Caribbeans tended to have lower growth, and churches in areas with higher proportions of black Africans had higher growth, but there was nothing to suggest that more ethnically diverse or more homogenous congregations were more or less likely to grow