Critical Mineral Depletion and Recycling: From the Perspective of the Cooperation and Open-Loop Competition

Critical minerals are essential to the success of the transition to clean and sustainable technology. However, critical minerals face supply chain disruption, resource depletion, a lack of recycling technology and minimum demand, which may be increasing over time, at least in the short run. This paper models critical mineral extraction and recycling strategies under international cooperation and open-loop commitment competition. We show that (1) recycling technology can only partially reduce dependence on the virgin supply of critical minerals, given that recycling essentially relies on the accumulated supply from depletable resources; (2) the social planner's Markovian optimal market supply is based on either virgin or recyclable resources, with the more socially desirable being used first; (3) if the recyclable resource is exhausted, the social planner does not have an optimal choice regarding how to exploit the remaining virgin resource; but (4) under open-loop commitment, the two resources can coexist until the virgin resource is exhausted