Security strategy under uncertainty : the behaviour of secondary powers in the East Asian power shifts. Roosting raptors : the American Eagle, Chinese Fenghuang, and Indonesian Garuda

East Asia faces the strategic transition. Conventional balance of power (BOP) theory emphasizes major power relations in shaping the geopolitical landscape, neglecting the effects of secondary powers. The authors hope to ameliorate this scholarly passivity on the role of secondary powers in BOP framework. This paper posits six hypotheses that encompasses a state’s strategic perception and behaviour. By testing these hypotheses against historical case studies, the causal reasons for secondary states’ strategic behaviour is inductively identified to understand their strategic assessment. From 1945 – 2015, Indonesia’s relations with the major powers during each shift is analysed. Qualitative and quantitative literature is used to (i) substantiate Indonesia’s perception of major powers, and (ii) corroborate Indonesia’s perceptions with the analysis of Indonesia’s strategic behaviour. The paper concludes by reviewing why the strategic behaviour occur during each shift and the degree to which the distribution of power affects a secondary state’s strategic behaviour.Bachelor of Art