Haben Konjunkturprognosen in Deutschland einen politischen Bias?

The paper analyzes whether business cycle forecasts in Germany show a political bias. Several explanations for a political influence on forecasts are discussed. Using predictions from the German Institute of Economic Research and the Kiel Institute of World Economics, the hypotheses are tested empirically. The results provide no evidence supporting opportunistic or partisan behavior of the institutes. In contrast, there is some evidence in favor of the hypothesis of intentional forecast errors. The results, however, depend on the econometric technique used. In particular, in some instances, parametric and non-parametric tests lead to conflicting results