An Econometric Model for the World Market Price of Sugar with Price Expectations

In this empirical study an econometric model for the world market price of sugar, based on the decisions of main sugar importing and exporting countries is discussed. For the incorporation of price expectations a model on the basis of expert information has been specified. In the estimation of the model quarterly data, ranging from 1971, 1. quarter to 1985, 3. quarter have been used. In the paper the results of the estimation and of a simulation experiment are presented