Das Sequenzing-Problem der Systemtransformation in Mittel- und Osteuropa

The Problem of Sequencing the System Transformation in Central and Eastern Europe Why is it that economic transformation in the former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe deviates so crucially from the perceptions of a relatively simple transformation process which we still had two years ago? Have problems been underestimated, or have governments been wrongly advised? This contribution discusses six of the especially important domestic economic problem areas, namely: (1) The existing laws are fundamentally different from the legal systems that form the basis of individualistically oriented market economy systems. (2) The responsibility for social services and the social system must be shifted from overmanned unproductive jobs to new public authorities and insurance companies. (3) The often overdimensioned industrial and commercial organizations must be restructured in an economically meaningful way so as to allow investment decisions to be reached in future by enterprises that act independently and do – as far as this is possible – not exercise monopoly power. (4) The responsibilities of the public sector must be redefined; it must be reorganized and provided with the revenues it needs for discharging its tasks without printing money. (5) The credit sector institutions (central bank, banks, capital market) must be developed under conditions that are extremely unfavourable; the business start-up debts represent high risks, whilst existing companies, which accumulated large amounts of debts in the past (with “soft” budget restrictions), must learn in a situation of economic depression to make ends meet with limited financial resources (with “tough” budget restrictions). (6) Inflation must be stopped precisely in a period of a purchasing power overhang inherited from the times of central economic planning. A description of these problems shows that interdependencies exist between problem solutions which are studied against the background of the following question: What must the sequencing of the system reform steps and political actions be that it conforms to the logic of economic interconnections and defuses conflicting interests? One obvious approch would be to begin at the open and of a network of interdependent problems. A study of the logic of this approach shows that corporate