Progression of valvular calcification and risk of incident stroke: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background and aimsPrevalent valvular calcification (VC) is associated with stroke but little is known about associations of VC progression with stroke.MethodsProgression (interval increase >0 Agatston units/year) of aortic valvular calcification (AVC) and mitral annular calcification (MAC) was assessed by two cardiac CTs over a median of 2.4 years. We determined the risk of adjudicated total and ischemic stroke using Cox regression adjusted for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors.ResultsWe studied 5,539 MESA participants free of baseline CVD and atrial fibrillation. Baseline mean ± SD age was 62 ± 10 years; 53% were women; 83% had no progression of VC; 15%, progression at one site (AVC or MAC), and 3%, progression at both sites. Over a median of 12 years, 211 total and 167 ischemic strokes occurred. The number of sites with VC progression (range 0-2) was not associated with total and ischemic stroke (all p > 0.05). We found MAC progression to be associated with increased risk of total stroke [adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) 1.59 (1.11, 2.28)] and ischemic stroke [1.64 (1.10, 2.45)]. Results remained significant after further adjustment for baseline coronary artery calcification. After excluding participants with interim atrial fibrillation and coronary heart disease, findings were no longer statistically significant in fully-adjusted models. There was no interaction by age, sex, or race/ethnicity. There was no association with AVC progression and stroke.ConclusionsProgression of MAC but not AVC over 2.4 years is associated with increased risk of total and ischemic stroke