Dynamic Risk Trajectories, Community Context, and Juvenile Recidivism

Purpose While the implementation of risk assessment has expanded, the extent to which there are different trajectories of risk/protective factors among adjudicated youth during supervision in the community remains unanswered. The goal of the current study is to identify the distinct trajectories in dynamic risk and protective factors among youth on probation and assess whether different patterns in risk over time are associated with continued offending. Method Group-based trajectory modeling is used to identify distinct trajectories across multiple domains of risk/need. The individual- and neighborhood-level factors associated with these trajectories are then explored, prior to examining their relationship to continued delinquency. Results Results suggest that a sizable combination of risk/needs trajectories exist among youth on probation. These distinct trajectories are differentially associated with individual and neighborhood characteristics. A select number of trajectories also appear to be indicative of continued offending post-completion of community supervision. Conclusions Information regarding the evolving nature of juvenile risk/needs during supervision is critically important to reduce incarceration, flatten the age-crime curve, and ensure public safety. Findings have implications for the use of dynamic risk assessment among youth on probation as well as juvenile recidivism research more generally