Analysis of climate change and its potential influence on energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. Part 2: Energy and thermal simulation

The subject of this paper is the analysis of possible influence of climate change on the energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. The model is based on the Maison Air et Lumière house, which concept was developed as part of the Model Homo 2020 project. It was a low-energy, single family, detached house. The model was divided into three thermal zones and developed by using SketchUp software. The analysis of the climate change was made on the example of the city in Poland – Kielce and described in the first part of the paper. Dynamic calculations of the building model were performed by using the TRNSYS software. The calculations were made for three different scenarios relating to existing technical systems: ventilation, ventilation + heating, ventilation + heating + cooling. Annual energy consumption and rooms air temperature changes were estimated for each variant. The results showed higher risk of summer discomfort and change in energy balance of building what indicates the need to use the cooling system in the future during the summer to reduce the discomfort of overheating. In the variant without the cooling system, the percentage of time with an indoor temperature above 27°C increased from 23.7% to 44.2% in zone 2. The energy demand for heating was reduced by 23.4% compared to the current climate, and the energy consumption for cooling (with the cooling option) increased significantly by 232% compared to the current demand. Summarizing, research indicates that with global warming, the energy demand for heating will decrease and the cooling demand will increase significantly in order to maintain the required user comfort