Visualizing stakeholders’ willingness for collective action in participatory scenario planning

Participatory scenario planning is a powerful approach to guide diverse stakeholders in creating and reflecting on visions of plausible and desired futures. However, this process requires tools to guide collective action to implement such visions within management agendas. This study develops, applies, and analyzes a novel visual tool within a virtual participatory scenario planning process about the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (Madrid, Spain). Building on the identification of stakeholders who might engage in scenario strategies, the visual tool guided them in defining tasks to be developed and envisioning their willingness to collaborate in their implementation. We qualitatively analyzed data from recordings, online field observations, a post-survey from the scenario planning process, and a successive policy workshop. Our findings show that the visual tool fosters dialogue between stakeholders to redistribute tasks for working together on needed strategies in the protected area while promoting reflection on their willingness to collaborate as a group to implement them. The visual tool provided graphic outcomes for nine strategies corresponding to pictures of who may or may not be willing to engage in implementing such strategies. We argue that the visual tool is a robust method that can complement participatory scenario planning processes by providing a useful starting point for creating action networks to incorporate the resulting scenario strategies into management agendas. We deliberate on the nature of the visual tool as a boundary object and discuss its role as a decision-support tool. In particular, we reflect on the potential contributions and limitations of the visual tool to four dimensions of participatory conservation governance during participatory scenario planning processes: inclusivity, integration, adaptation, and pluralism. Our study provides a practical orientation to adapt the tool to other contexts and knowledge co-creation processes