The response of non-point source pollution to land use change and risk assessment based on model simulation and grey water footprint theory in an agricultural river basin of Yangtze River, China

Non-point source (NPS) pollution has gradually become the main source of water environmental pollution with the rapid economic development during the recent decades, especially for the economically developed Yangtze River Basin of China. Due to rapid urbanization, the pressure of the water environment in the Poyang Lake basin (PYLB) has been increasing. In this study, the spatial and temporal variations of NPS pollution loads including total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the PYLB during the period 2003–2012 were firstly investigated by using the SWAT; then the changes in NPS pollution loads under different land use types were identified by using the SWAT, land use transition matrix, statistical analysis and scenario analysis methods; finally, the NPS pollution risk assessment were achieved by means of the grey water footprint theory. The results showed that the NPS pollution loads in the PYLB were concentrated from April to June with a large inter-annual variability. The Gan River basin contributed the largest proportion of pollutants entering into the Poyang lake while the Xiu River basin produced the smallest pollution loads. Under the background of the policy of “Grain for Green Project” since 2002, the areas of cultivated land, grassland and bare land decreased during the period 2000–2010, while those of forest land and settlement increased. As the main source of NPS pollution, the area of cultivated land has decreased, while the unit load intensity under cultivated land has significantly increased. By calculating the annual GWF of TN and TP loads and their corresponding WPL, which all showed an upward trend. The results obtained in this study have practical significance for reducing the NPS pollution loads in the PYLB and controlling the environmental pollution in the Yangtze River