Methodenentwicklung zur Bestimmung von Potenzialen der Energieeffizienzsteigerung im Haushalts und GHD-Sekto: Am Beispiel von drei Landkreisen in Bayern

The work presented describes a bottom-up simulation model for the regional heatdemand in residential buildings. Thereby the technical durability is used as the base for the random failure performance of the components in the heat transmitting building shell. This sort of description enables in addition to the time classification also the estimation of the quality of the rehabilitation measure. As a result a quota for the rehabilitation measures and the specific heat demand of regional districts until the year 2030 can be calculated. Furthermore a method for description of the number of all employees is developed. It is based on the number of business registrations and the number of employees who are subjects of the social insurance contribution system of three Bavarian administrative districts for the sector commerce, trade and services. Hence a useful extrapolation of the sector's energy demand is possible