Predicting patient Length of Stay in Australian emergency departments using data mining

Length of Stay (LOS) is an important performance metric in Australian Emergency Departments (EDs). Recent evidence suggests that an LOS in excess of 4 h may be associated with increased mortality, but despite this, the average LOS continues to remain greater than 4 h in many EDs. Previous studies have found that Data Mining (DM) can be used to help hospitals to manage this metric and there is continued research into identifying factors that cause delays in ED LOS. Despite this, there is still a lack of specific research into how DM could use these factors to manage ED LOS. This study adds to the emerging literature and offers evidence that it is possible to predict delays in ED LOS to offer Clinical Decision Support (CDS) by using DM. Sixteen potentially relevant factors that impact ED LOS were identified through a literature survey and subsequently used as predictors to create six Data Mining Models (DMMs). An extract based on the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD) was used to obtain relevant patient details and the DMMs were implemented using the Weka Software. The DMMs implemented in this study were successful in identifying the factors that were most likely to cause ED LOS > 4 h and also identify their correlation. These DMMs can be used by hospitals, not only to identify risk factors in their EDs that could lead to ED LOS > 4 h, but also to monitor these factors over time.