Modelling regional lottery sales : methodological issuesand a case study from Spain

Sales are modelled for 50 Spanish provinces over 522 draws of a high prize lottogame.Acrossed random effects model allows for random shocks specific to particular draws andto particular provinces. The paper explores how demographic and socio-economic factorsinfluence sales volumes, with particular focus on the relationship between sales and real percapita income at different jackpot sizes. When jackpots are low, sales are shown to rise with thelevel of provincial incomes. But this relationship disappears or is reversed when rollovers raisethe jackpot because sales in poorer provinces are markedly more responsive to jackpot siz