Identifying the relationship between oil price, economic development, and carbon emission in the United States ---- Based on TVP-VAR Model

In recent years, a growing number of governments have been adversely affected by excessive carbon emissions, while simultaneously committed to reduce carbon emissions. In order to find the ideal environmental approach, this study used a Time-varying parameter-vector autoregression model to examine the relationship between international oil prices, carbon emissions, and the U.S. economy. According to the study, the international oil price always has a favorable effect on carbon emissions, with the short-term effect being more pronounced. Instead of the unemployment rate, the international oil price always has a favorable effect on the economic growth of the United States. The impact of oil price on the unemployment rate in the United States depends on the political party in power due to divergent attitudes toward the energy business. And the impact of the US GDP on carbon emissions is positive, whereas the impact of the CPI is negative. The relationship between unemployment rate and carbon emissions is also unstable. In addition, by selecting different time points (economic expansion, economic recession, public health catastrophe), we can determine the unique correlations between variables in a variety of contexts. The relationship between oil price and carbon emissions is not the same for public health events. In terms of the influence of oil price on the economy, the initial impact of oil price on GDP during an economic recession is a rise, followed by a decline, because oil price has a less long-term impact than other factors. In times of public health emergency, the impact of oil price on unemployment rate is negative, as the demand for workers in the energy industry increases. Finally, the effect of the economy on carbon emissions is consistent over different time periods, which allows policymakers to foresee the situation and develop effective regulations