A BIOECONOMIC SPATIAL CONDITIONAL PREDICTIVE TRADE MODEL IN FISHERIES: THE HAKE FISHERY (CHILE, PERU, ARGENTINA, URUGUAY, SOUTH AFRICA)

World production and trade in fisheries have gone through great changes during the last decades. Catches, after showing a stable rate of increase of about 7% a year, have recently increased with a fluctuating rate of not more than two percent a year. Several factors are responsible for these changing patterns of which the most important are the overfishing of some traditional stocks, new and efficient harvesting, processing and marketing techniques, changes in cost structures and environmental conditions as well as institutional changes in the regime of the sea. On the other hand, as consequence of higher income and population growth, the pattern of world consumption and trade have changed also. New species are becoming commercially important as new markets and new product forms develop for these species. Trade flows, relative price and price levels are adjusting accordingly. The hake fisheries have been emerging as important fisheries and hakes are becoming promising substitutes for other white fleshed species such as cod or haddock, whereas at one time, it was almost considered a trash fish much of which was used for fish meal and animal food. The hake fisheries have some potentials for increased exploitation exist and markets seem likely to expand. If society as a whole and individual countries in particular want to maximize the benefits from their renewable resources, management policies must be designed in order to overcome well known market imperfections. Consequently, evaluations of relative benefits and costs of alternative actions must be made. The main objective of this study is to develop a bioeconomic, conditional predictive model for the world hake fishies which will allow investigation of the implications for producer and consumer countries of alternative possible conditions. Biological and technological relationships in production and market conditions are formulated in a mathematical programming model. Based on biological and market statistical data, producer and exporting countries were grouped into three regions (Chile-Peru, Argentina-Uruguay, South Africa), while importing countries were grouped into two distinctive regions (USA and Europe). Results of the base model suggest that the aggregate maximum net revenues derived from hake exploitation to producing countries is $214 million, of which $99 million accrue to the region composed of Argentina and Uruguay, $65 million to the Chile-Peru region and the remaining $50 million to South Africa. . . . (Author\u27s abstract exceeds stipulated maximum length. Discontinued here with permission of author.) UM