The Analysis of Predictors of Retirement Preferences over Time

Due to rapid demographic ageing and to sustain its pension system, the Netherlands recently initiated a pension reform that increased the retirement age, with the intention to increase labour force participation among older workers. However, there is little evidence on the preferences of workers concerning their retirement age, and on how these preferences have changed over time. To identify personal and work-related determinants of the preference toward earlier or later retirement, and how these determinants and preferences have changed over time. We use data from three consecutive measurements (waves) of a large Dutch panel. Ordered logit regression is used to investigate the predictors of retirement preferences. Analyses are performed for two groups; all workers and a subsample of workers aged 50 years or older. Furthermore, the analyses are performed for each wave separately and for the combined dataset. A preference for later retirement is primarily related to university education, high job satisfaction, and high income. Age is only positively related to later retirement among older workers. Earlier retirement is preferred by female workers and workers living with a partner. The preference toward an earlier retirement age has increased over time. The preferences toward retirement can be primarily explained by personal characteristics, job satisfaction, and net income. Furthermore, with the increase in the retirement age defined by current legislation, the preference for an earlier retirement age has increased over time