Simulation of stream flows and climate trend detections using WEAP model in awash river basin

AbstractThe shrinking of water resources along with the frequent droughts plays an effective role in intensifying the water crisis. Climate change adversely affects the hydrological cycle at the basin level. These are often reflected in the water and food insecurity, frequent hydrologic extremes, frequent drought, flooding, and deteriorating ecosystem health. This study aims to calibrate and validate the stream flows in Awash River basin using a distributed hydrological Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. Mean monthly Precipitation; temperature and stream flow are used to run the model. The model was calibrated and validated using mean stream flow. The trends of climate over the study basin were also investigated using Mann Kendall trend tests. The results revealed that the value of R2 ranged from 0.73 to 0.91 during calibration periods. On the other hand, the value of Nash—Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is ranged from 0.65 to 0.83. However, the values of coefficient of determination (R2) during validation periods ranged from 0.54 to 0.91 and the values of Nash—Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), ranges from 0.50 to 0.84. Thus, The results at two important parts of the main river (upstream and downstream) gauges showed good agreement between the simulated and observed stream flow. The basin receives a significant amount of water during the rainy season (June to September). The mean annual rainfall of the basin ranges from 100 to 1700 mm with great spatiotemporal variation. The annual stream flow of the Awash River basin shows a sharp decreasing trend (Z = −0.120 during the study period. Thus, the findings of this study could provide insights for concerned bodies to implement effective water resources management techniques. The study also proposed that, to ensure the sustainability of water resources, better long-term management policies are required to be implemented in the basin and to meet future downstream water needs