Add to ORKGMost economists maintain that the labour market in the United States (and elsewhere) is ‘tight’ because unemployment rates are low, and the Beveridge Curve (the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio) is high. They infer from this that there is potential for wage-push inflation. However, real wages fell rapidly in 2022 and, prior to that, real wages had been stagnant for some time. We show that unemployment is not key to understanding wage formation in the United States and hasn’t been since the Great Recession. Instead, we show rates of under-employment (the percentage of workers with part-time hours who would prefer more hours) and the rate of inactivity (the percentage of the civilian adult population who are out of the labour force) reduces wa...
The last eight years have been disastrous for many workers, and particularly so for those with low h...
• In work with Adam Posen we find using state level data that both the unemployment rate and the ina...
The Beveridge curve depicts the empirical relationship between job vacancies and unemployment, which...
Most economists maintain that the labour market in the United States (and elsewhere) is ‘tight’ beca...
The deep and prolonged recession triggered by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 led to a larg...
For much of the mid- to late-1990s, economists have wondered at the simultaneously low unemployment ...
This paper provides evidence for the existence of a wage curve -- a micro-econometric association be...
In recent years, the relationship between wage growth and the unemployment gap, known as the wage Ph...
The recent combination of low inflation and low unemployment has led some to question whether the sh...
It has been well over a decade since the economy tumbled into what is now dubbed the Great Recession...
In this paper we propose that the rise in underemployment has changed the wage setting process in th...
This paper documents a statistical regulatity or law. It shows that there exists a downward-sloping ...
The past recession has hit the labor market especially hard, and economists are wondering whether so...
The authors of this paper argue that the claim by the previous government that inflation fears were ...
This paper, which follows in an LSE tradition begun by Phillips and Sargan, examines the rote of une...
The last eight years have been disastrous for many workers, and particularly so for those with low h...
• In work with Adam Posen we find using state level data that both the unemployment rate and the ina...
The Beveridge curve depicts the empirical relationship between job vacancies and unemployment, which...
Most economists maintain that the labour market in the United States (and elsewhere) is ‘tight’ beca...
The deep and prolonged recession triggered by the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 led to a larg...
For much of the mid- to late-1990s, economists have wondered at the simultaneously low unemployment ...
This paper provides evidence for the existence of a wage curve -- a micro-econometric association be...
In recent years, the relationship between wage growth and the unemployment gap, known as the wage Ph...
The recent combination of low inflation and low unemployment has led some to question whether the sh...
It has been well over a decade since the economy tumbled into what is now dubbed the Great Recession...
In this paper we propose that the rise in underemployment has changed the wage setting process in th...
This paper documents a statistical regulatity or law. It shows that there exists a downward-sloping ...
The past recession has hit the labor market especially hard, and economists are wondering whether so...
The authors of this paper argue that the claim by the previous government that inflation fears were ...
This paper, which follows in an LSE tradition begun by Phillips and Sargan, examines the rote of une...
The last eight years have been disastrous for many workers, and particularly so for those with low h...
• In work with Adam Posen we find using state level data that both the unemployment rate and the ina...
The Beveridge curve depicts the empirical relationship between job vacancies and unemployment, which...