World Cotton Consumption: Transition and Competition

Following a global economic recession and nearly unprecedented price volatility, world cotton consumption in 2014/15 is forecast virtually unchanged from its level of 10 years earlier. A USDA model of world cotton consumption indicates that recent price changes and expectations for global income growth mean world cotton consumption could grow at a well-above-average rate in 2015/16, between 4.3 and 6.1 percent. A model of cotton’s share of fiber consumption indicates a small rise in cotton’s share can be expected, given recent trends in cotton and polyester prices, consistent with the expectation of higher world consumption. Uncertainties in the forecast are large since cotton’s share of world fiber consumption fell so sharply after 2007/08 and China initiated a price support system in 2010/11 that shifted cotton consumption between countries and drove ending stocks to unsustainable levels. China’s 2014/15 cotton policy reforms mean its textile industry could claim an above-average share of an increase in world cotton consumption