PENGARUH PARIWISATA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

This study aims to determine the impact of tourism to economic growth in Indonesia during 1995 – 2000. Based on quarterly time series data and using VAR model, the study tries to analyze patterns of causal relationship between the growth of tourism (tourism receipts) and economic growth. The results showed several conclusions : (i) the growth of tourism and economic growth have reciprocal causal relationship. However, the impact of tourism (receipts) growth increase will accelerate the economic growth with time lag 5 – 6 quarters, while the increase of GDP growth will boost the increase of tourism growth on the next quarter. This study also found that the tourism promotion policy would affected the tourism growth on the next 1 – 3 following quarters. In Indonesia, bomb terrors will adversely impact on the growth of tourism of the first two following quarters