Exploring effectiveness of legal regimes for marine protected areas beyond national jurisdiction in the Southern Ocean and North‑East Atlantic region

Marine areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) are increasingly coming under threat from anthropogenic activities, such as pollution and overfishing, as well as potential impacts from new and emerging technologies, such as marine geoengineering and deep seabed mining. New technological advances, such as robotics, imaging, and structural engineering greatly improve access to the deep ocean. The emergence of new deep seabed mining technologies has the potential to provide access to hydrocarbon energy sources and mineral resources previously unattainable and uneconomical to recover. Climate change is increasingly having an impact on the oceans and marine species through impacts such as ocean warming, acidification, species range shift and other ecosystem-altering processes. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are one type of area-based management tool that can be used to protect and conserve ocean health and sustainably manage marine resource use. The ABNJ amount to nearly half of the Earth’s surface, comprising 64 per cent of the ocean’s surface and containing 90 per cent of its total biomass. However, only 13 MPAs have been designated in ABNJ (MPABNJ) covering a mere 1.18 per cent, despite continuing global targets and initiatives to increase the global coverage of MPAs. These MPABNJs have been established under two regional legal regimes; the 1980 Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CAMLR Convention) implemented by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), and the 1992 Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR Convention) implemented by the OSPAR Commission. The objective of this research is to assess the effectiveness of the CCAMLR and OSPAR regimes in establishing and implementing MPABNJs. This research undertakes a comparative analysis of the case studies using a mixed-methods approach of qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis. This research project employs a mixed-methods approach, using qualitative and semi-quantitative data. For the qualitative analysis, information from a diverse range of individuals and primary and secondary data sources was collected and analysed, including semi-structured interviews, observations at Commission meetings, treaties and other legal documents, as well as meeting reports, documents, media, literature, and maps. The semi-quantitative analysis used spatial data analysis of MPA boundaries taken from the MPA proposals submitted. This was compared with the final MPA boundaries to show changes in MPA proposal areas throughout the negotiation process. A comparative analysis of the two case studies, the CAMLR and OSPAR Conventions, was undertaken. Regime theory concepts for assessing regime effectiveness are drawn upon to assist this analysis, in particular, regime ‘outputs’ (i.e., convention text and objectives), ‘outcomes’ (i.e., changes in State behaviour to address the issue the convention was designed for), and ‘impacts’ (i.e., changes in the marine environment as a result). This research details the output phase for each case study, then assesses the outcome and impact phases under the lens of establishing and implementing MPABNJs. The natural systems of ABNJ are vast, often difficult to access, and generally have limited baseline data available to enable a comprehensive assessment from before the regime was formed until the present day. Additionally, the MPABNJs in both the CAMLR and OSPAR Convention areas either entirely lacks, or is in the early stages of implementing management, monitoring and research plans. This poses a significant challenge in assessing changes in the marine environment since adoption of an MPABNJ. This research therefore focuses on the outcome phase as the key indicator of vii effectiveness. In doing so, it applies behavioural models to analyse how the CCAMLR and OSPAR regimes have influenced actor (State) behaviour to achieve the objectives of the CAMLR and OSPAR Conventions to establish and implement MPABNJs. The findings of this research aim to contribute to the wider research field in international ocean governance by demonstrating that even though the self-interests of States are often the strongest driving force that alters actor behaviour, there is also a wider set of circumstances under which the CCAMLR and OSPAR regimes influence actors to change their behaviour. This research proposes lessons learned and recommendations from the challenges faced and successes achieved by the CCAMLR and OSPAR regimes throughout the MPA process, which can be applied to other institutional cases seeking to protect and conserve ocean health and sustainably manage human resources use in ABNJ