Evaluating Outcome-Correlated Recruitment and Geographic Recruitment Bias in a Respondent-Driven Sample of People Who Inject Drugs in Tijuana, Mexico

Respondent-driven sampling's (RDS) widespread use and reliance on untested assumptions suggests a need for new exploratory/diagnostic tests. We assessed geographic recruitment bias and outcome-correlated recruitment among 1,048 RDS-recruited people who inject drugs (Tijuana, Mexico). Surveys gathered demographics, drug/sex behaviors, activity locations, and recruiter-recruit pairs. Simulations assessed geographic and network clustering of active syphilis (RPR titers ≥1:8). Gender-specific predicted probabilities were estimated using logistic regression with GEE and robust standard errors. Active syphilis prevalence was 7 % (crude: men = 5.7 % and women = 16.6 %; RDS-adjusted: men = 6.7 % and women = 7.6 %). Syphilis clustered in the Zona Norte, a neighborhood known for drug and sex markets. Network simulations revealed geographic recruitment bias and non-random recruitment by syphilis status. Gender-specific prevalence estimates accounting for clustering were highest among those living/working/injecting/buying drugs in the Zona Norte and directly/indirectly connected to syphilis cases (men: 15.9 %, women: 25.6 %) and lowest among those with neither exposure (men: 3.0 %, women: 6.1 %). Future RDS analyses should assess/account for network and spatial dependencies