Risico voor fruitbomen en inheemse bomen na bestrijding van Amerikaanse vogelkers (Prunus serotina) met loodglansschimmel (Chondrostereum purpureum).

The shrub Prunus serotina , introduced from North America, became a forest pest in the Netherlands. Biological control was considered using the fungus Chondrostereum purpureum , commonly present as a saprophyte and parasite in wood. C. purpureum can cause silverleaf disease in cultivated fruit trees. As biological control of P.serotina was shown to be effective, a risk analysis was performed using a theoretical framework provided by epidemiology and air pollution theory, simulation models, and empirical parametrization of these models. The risk to native non-target trees within the forest due to biological control was negligible, mainly because of their low susceptibility. The risk to fruit trees at 500 m distance from the forest due to biological control was high and at 5000 m distance low. For some areas, the risk to non-target trees, due to biological control, was calculated to be of the same order of magnitude as or less than the risk due to natural infection. A map of the Netherlands showed that only 4 per cent of the hour-squares contained both forests eligible for treatment and orchards possibly endangered by biological control in nearby forests