The sustainability of carbon sinks in forests; studying the sensitivity of forest carbon sinks in the Netherlands, Europe and the Amazon to climate and management

The aim of this study was to assess the sustainability of carbon sinks in managed or unmanaged forests in Europe and Amazonia. First, the functioning and seasonal variability of the carbon sink strength in forest ecosystems was analysed in relation toclimate variability. To this end, existing global data sets of ecosystem fluxes measured by eddy correlation were analysed. A simple, comprehensive empirical model was derived to represent these flux variabilities. Furthermore, new soil respiration measurements were initiated in the Netherlands and Amazonia and their usefulness to understand the uptake and emission components of carbon exchange was analysed. Then, two long-term forest dynamics models were parameterized (FORSPACE and CENTURY) for Dutch Pinus and Fagus forests, to study the development of forest carbon stocks over a century under different management and climate scenarios. Finally, using the empirical model as well as the long-term models, scenario predictions were made. It turns out that uptake rates are expected to decrease in a climate with higher temperatures, but that storage capacity for carbon can be expected to be slightly enhanced, especially if also the management intensity is carefully tuned down