Driving forces behind landscape transformation in Europe, from a conceptual approach to policy options

Natural and man-induced changes modelled and remodelled European landscapes continuously. As historical and ongoing changes differ in character and intensity from time to time and from region to region whereas landscapes themselves differ in their responses, temporal and regional specification is required. From a policy point of view the questions are: i) what are the direction and rate of changes? ii) how to value these; iii) whether or not to intervene; and iv) if so, how? Options vary from compensation measures and mitigation of effects to targeting at direct influences or so-called driving forces (DFs). A co-ordinated and proactive and effective policy is mostly preferred to of a reactive policy aimed at end-of-pipe measures. To sustain conscious choices one should identify underlying causes and processes (i.e. DFs), cause¿effect tracks and possibilities to intervene. The concept of driving forces is explained and elaborated, specifically for landscapes. We use two related conceptual models; the first based on the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) concept and ¿ more targeted¿ a `mental map¿ for landscape change. A third concept helps to distinguish decision-making philosophies or stages according to their scope and time horizon. Current and foreseeable trends in Europe herald major changes affecting biodiversity, cultural heritage, scenery, environmental quality and economic values. Important DFs are: i) the (largely man-induced) global change in climate and sea level rise; ii) land-use change in rural areas, related to a change in demography, technological development, geopolitical change, macroeconomic change and sociocultural changes; and iii) urbanization processes. All processes affect vast areas in Europe. We give examples for climate change and change in agriculture in Europe. Policymaking could be more effective when targeted on driving forces, though second-best strategies can be inevitable