Survival probabilities of Pugh-child-PBC classified patients in the Euricterus primary biliary cirrhosis population, based on the Mayo clinic prognostic model

Background/Aims: Estimation of prognosis becomes increasingly important in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) with advancing disease and also with regard to patient management. The ubiquitous used Pugh scoring for severity of disease is simple while the Mayo model which has been validated for survival estimates is more sophisticated. We wanted to investigate whether Pugh and Mayo scores correlate (they have 3 of 5 variables in common) and if so whether a survival probability based on Mayo data could be affixed on Pugh classes and scores obtained in the same patients.Methodology: All variables used for Mayo Clinic Prognostic Model (Mayo) scoring and Pugh-Child-PBC (Pugh) scoring were available in 143 PBC patients of the Pan European database Euricterus. Pugh scores P5-P15 and has classes A (P5-6), B (P7-9) and C (P10-15). We subdivided P5 in P5A (patients with albumin >40 g/l plus prothrombin time less than or equal to 12 sees) and P5B (the other patients in P5). We designed a category Pugh Early (PE) for patients with P5A characteristics and bilirubinResults: The estimated survival probabilities of the 143 patients ranged from 88% at 7 years to 0% at 1 year, median 14% at 5 years. The Pugh and Mayo scores correlated r = 0.87(pConclusion: It was possible (affixing Mayo to Pugh) to define 1-7 years survival probabilities to Pugh classes and scores for the last 7 years of the disease, i.e, the most important period for therapeutic decisions. These results need to be validated in other PBC populations.