Potential impacts of climate change on Dutch forests : mapping the risks

The aim of this study was to assess, spatially explicit, the potential impact of climate change on Dutch forests. To deal with the uncertainty of climate change, the effects of four climate scenarios were studied. The following aspects of climate change were taken into account: decreased water availability in case of summer droughts, increased soil water levels in case of increasing precipitation, forest fire, salinization and insect pests. Information on the sensitivity of tree species to these aspects was combined with information on the composition of forests and with information on the exposure to these aspects. If drought occurs more often, this might reduce tree growth in a large proportion of the forest