Public opinion and enlargement:A gravity approach

This paper examines European Union (EU) member state attitudes toward enlargement. We use Eurobarometer data for aggregate national support from 1996 to 2002 for the accession of each of 13 candidate countries - the 10 that will join the EU in 2004 plus Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey. Analyzing our cross-section time series, we find, first, that the level of support correlates positively with the share of the candidate country in the total exports of the member state and negatively with the distance between the capitals of the member state and the candidate country. This finding supports the hypothesis that common identity, or 'we-feeling,' grows with interaction (Deutsch et al., 1957). Second, support correlates negatively with the relative importance of agriculture in domestic employment. Since agriculture triggers EU financial flows, this finding supports the view that attitudes toward integration are policy related (Gabel, 1998b, 1998c). Third, support is lower when both the member state and the candidate country are predominantly Catholic. This suggests that, although Catholics may desire a deeper Europe (Nelsen et al., 2001), they oppose a wider Europe.