The population of Indonesia:regional demographic scenarios using a multiregional method and multiple data sources

This study attempts to contribute on the understanding of regional population dynamics in Indonesia. It outlines a detailed analysis of the changes in regional demographic variables during the last three decades. It provides an assessment of the past population projections, as well as the advantages offered by available demographic data sources. The resulting multiregional projections give an idea of a likely population that Indonesia and its regions will have up to the year 2020 if the regional dimension is taken into account in the demographic scenarios applied. The research shows that the multiregional demographic analysis is appropriate in the context of Indonesia. The method applied is valuable because it simultaneously captures regional demographic dynamics. Results of population projections in this research have illustrated how different assumptions concerning regional demographic parameters are expected to produce different demographic figures at the national and regional level. It implies the increasing importance for development planners to pay more careful consideration to regional population dynamics. Another novelty of this study, in the context of Indonesia, is the application of demographic models for estimating the age-specific fertility, mortality and migration rates. Instead of using the Coale-Demeny life tables for the West model, regional adult mortality rates were estimated directly from the survey data. This study utilized demographic data from several sources (i.e. census and surveys) to construct the base data for projections. As a result, the method and analyses developed in this study can also be utilized for other countries, where the regional differences or the characteristics of demographic data sources may find resonance with Indonesia. A study of Indonesia’s regional demographic scenarios has, therefore, a wide international relevance