Projections of long-term food security with R&D driven technical change-A CGE analysis

<p>In this paper, the impact of public R&amp;D investment on agricultural productivity and long-term food security via R&amp;D driven endogenous technical change is analysed. The findings show that R&amp;D growth rates at the level reached in 2000s, particularly those for China, would not be expected any longer. Concerning the impact of projected R&amp;D investments on agricultural productivity, it is found that endogenous growth rates of land-augmenting technical change are comparably lower than the standard exogenous rates used in long term projections of agri-food markets. This suggests that public R&amp;D investments are not able to stimulate agricultural production to the levels that would be expected from the standard baseline outcomes.