Health systems simulation modelling to support decision-making in Covid-19 prevention and control in care homes

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted care homes’ vulnerability to infectious disease outbreaks and the lack of context-specific best practice infection prevention and control (IPC) guidance for this setting. Care homes, where the majority of residents are elderly and have complex medical and care needs, have suffered devastating outcomes. Suspension of visiting due to COVID-19 outbreaks has also caused substantial unintended harms to the health and wellbeing of residents. Since April 2020, we have collaborated with decision-makers from Health and Social Care Lanarkshire (HSCL) in Scotland, the Scottish Government, and the UK Government Department of Health and Social Care to provide evidence to support them in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in care homes. We developed novel systems simulation models, which included agent-based models (ABM) and hybrid System Dynamics (SD) – ABM models, to help address the gaps in IPC knowledge and practice in this setting