Testing long-run relationship between stock market and macroeconomic variables in the presence of structural breaks: The Turkish case

In this paper, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market level is investigated. In the empirical analysis, well-known (Zivot Andrews, 1992; Lumsdaine Papell, 1997) unit root tests are conducted to determine the order of integration of the time series. Gregory-Hansen test which allows for structural breaks in the data is employed to examine the cointegration between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock market prices. As a result, Istanbul Stock Exchange National-100 (ISE-100) index is found as cointegrated with the variables, namely gross domestic product, U.S. crude oil price, and industrial production. © EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2010